LH – It’s a horse race (“thankfully”), and stuff can go wrong; but it will very much have to for CH to get beaten in the CH. I Like To Move It the “wise guy” horse but his forward-going style may not be suited to the tactical shape of the race. Any of Jason The Militant, Not So Sleepy, or the big pair of Constitution Hill and State Man could take them along.

Cheltenham Festival Trainer Form Conclusions

Horses that raced outside Graded/Listed company have a poor record. The graph illustrates a clear upwards trajectory with the last four years averaging out at just under 20 per meeting (19.5 to be precise). Essentially this means that around 70% of all races in the past four years have had an Irish-trained favourite. Compare this to the first five years (2008 to 2012) where the average was 7.4. My main focus will be looking at the data as a whole – market factors, last time out (LTO) factors, etc.

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My Mate Mozzie was only a length and a half behind Found A Fifty but hasn’t raced this year, and his best form looks to be on better ground. Mistergif led on his sole Irish start though that was a maiden hurdle only, while Tullyhill has led the last twice. Firefox has also led in two of his last three, likewise Tellherthename. Even to fast looks the most likely pace setup on the scant evidence we have. Mystical Power runs in the green and gold of JP McManus, but is co-owned by Susannah Ricci and Mrs John Magnier.

Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 26th Feb 2022

If you still think taking 7/2 is acceptable when you can get 4/1, you’re doing it wrong. The course has provided an early hunting ground for a number of national hunt legends. Multiple Grand National winners have scored at Bangor, while Gold Cup winning trio Norton’s Coin, Mr Mulligan and Denman all tasted success there before their finest hour. None of the runners with racecourse experience leap off the page, so it may be worth chancing SAINT SEGAL. His dam was a very talented hurdler in France and his half-sister has also won over timber this season, so there is hope that he could be above average.

Value Bet tips: Saturday, December 23

The ground has now eased to Soft with Heavy places for the hurdlers. In comparison Fly Camp, also making his handicap debut, looks on a high mark on form achieved. Also the Cheltenham Festival racing charity fundraiser is set to get going. The exclusive preview will be despatched this afternoon and by signing up now you will get your membership ready for tomorrow. Last year’s winner of this race Morning Reggie has been out of form since.

Value, testing ground & the Festival…

• I thought he was very impressive that day at Cork and with this race being in similar conditions I’m expecting a similar performance.
• For a while this looked a matter of ‘how far’ assuming good health and a clear round, but the emergence of Energumene – an energumence?
• The Fame And Glory gelding has a smart turn of foot and could be leniently treated from an opening handicap mark of 147.
• He’d need supplementing, very likely, but he’d also need to improve another eight pounds on current ratings – less likely.
• He was much improved at Kempton last time when rattling home and he’s had a little nudge down the weights.
• He is quite interesting on his run behind subsequent Grade Kyrov and Golden Son in France.

He will again face the second horse from that Grade 1, Notebook, if both stand their ground at the weekend, and the fact that Notebook is circa 5/1 third choice for Dublin’s Festival Chase speaks of the paucity of opposition once more. There is the not inconsiderable frame of Min betwixt and between in the weekend market but, in the same ownership as Chacun Pour Soi, it is unclear what might be gained from that pair locking horns. Mind you, they did last season, CPS prevailing by most of four lengths. The tl;dr (bit late now, I realise) is that five of the last six winners – four of them, like Shishkin, odds-on favourites – won by six lengths or more.

Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Trends

Those rated higher than 140 won 47 races and lost a relatively small 54 points at SP and 2.75 points at BSP. Noel Meade has an infamous record at the Festival and, while he’s 0 from 13 in this section of races, his Road To Riches was third in both the 2015 Gold Cup and the 2016 Ryanair Chase. Paul Nicholls is still the winning-most Open Grade 1 trainer in the past decade, with ten such victories to his name.

50 Coral Cup (Handicap, Grade 3, 2m5f)

• It offers a breathtaking view to the west, over Cheltenham and the racecourse, over the River Severn and to Wales; and also across to the historic town of Winchcombe.
• Plaisir D’Amour runs from the Venetia Williams stable, who are in great form.
• Tiger Roll is only small but stays longer than Matt Chapman on Dancing On Ice and he loves Cheltenham, having completed a bizarre double in the two-mile Triumph Hurdle and four-mile National Hunt Chase here.
• “We’ll see if anything comes out in the wash, and the one thing is, we always questioned the mile and whether that would be the end of his gauge.
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• This time, 84 horses have worn them without a win, and just six places.
• Altior sees off Min to retain his unbeaten record over obstacles.

Most likely is that the top two in the betting will mark each other behind the rags, with Vauban expected to be ridden cold at the back of the field. It will be frenetic, due to the field size and the number of jockeys having their first ride of the week. The first of nine handicaps and I’ll tell you now that my thoughts will be (mercifully) brief. This race has been won by the home team exclusively since Dun Doire and Tony Martin wrested it away in 2006. They actually don’t run many – just three darts this year – and I’ll be fielding against them, perhaps carelessly. There looks to be plenty of early speed in this line up with each of Ha d’Or, Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon leading in their most recent three races.

Constitution Hill

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• Similarly, Paddy Power has strong in-play betting for racing punters.
• I like feeling that we have been a part of the process and it is not just because it’s a good horse.
• Sometimes you can spend a lot of time looking for something which, in the end, only tells you that there is probably nothing to be found.
• Joseph O’Brien won this in 2019 with Band Of Outlaws, and saddles Champion Green this time.
• And I’d especially favour a horse from a wide gate with an ostensibly uncontested lead.
• Without rain, not sure he’ll enjoy downhill sections of the track.
• The National Hunt Chase has changed markedly in character since gaining Grade 2 status and being shortened in trip.

30 Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)

Racing against hardened, more experienced chasers he battled all the way to the line to get within 3 1/2 lengths of the Grade 1-winning Mullins chaser Capodanno and last year’s Brown Advisory winner The Real Whacker. Back down to novice company he should go well but wearing headgear is a big no no in the Brown Advisory and I don’t like that Nicholls is reaching for the first time cheekpieces here. An Ayr maiden winner from six attempts as a juvenile, the Roger Varian-trained son of Profitable has taken a step forward on each of his four starts this season.

Israr makes most of class drop in Wolferton

In fact, overall, 17 of Henderson’s 32 runners in the race finished in the first three – take that, Willie! There’s a leap of faith required with this chap that there isn’t with some of the Irish Grade 1 horses but that’s reflected in their respective odds. One does need to keep a weather eye on the yard’s form, however, as there have been a fair number of P’s on the recent Hendo score card. He hasn’t had a runner, let alone a winner, since 2nd March and has just one entered pre-Cheltenham, at Plumpton on Monday.

• By the end of the 1830s, another of Britain’s great races – the Grand National – had been established at Aintree.
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• CAPADANO (each-way) has had a better prep this season and can improve on last year’s showing in the Grand National.
• “That was a really good run, it’s just a shame to miss out.
• That was his only visit to Cheltenham so he is unbeaten in one both at the track and at the Festival.
• Willie has the outsider Mercurey, too, this one running in the Mr Blobby / Susannah Ricci colours.

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His run in the Lockinge last time was an outstanding run, and he’s confirmed that today, so I’m thrilled. “We’ll see if anything comes out in the wash, and the one thing is, we always questioned the mile and whether that would be the end of his gauge. Whether this horse with racing has got quicker and so maybe coming back in trip might be what we need to be looking at.

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day One Preview, Tips

What is worth noting, however, is that 11 of the last 14 winners had raced fewer than ten times over fences and interestingly nine of the last 12 winners had worn some king of headgear (cheekpieces, hood or blinkers). Five of the last 13 winners had run in the Ultima Handicap the previous year. Willie Mullins naturally saddles a phalanx of blue bloods, and his first choice normally wins. Indeed, going back to Ebazayin, a 40/1 scorer for Mullins in 2007, that was his only – and therefore first choice – entry.

With nine fences to go

Master Chewy is a bit of a punt but, if ridden patiently, he might be able to pick up the pieces… And if they go a million on the front Bolts Up Daily then he could just nick the whole enchilada. Of course, he’s priced as though he has little chance and that may be how it transpires.

Billboard Star brings Group form to the table and gets in here off a lovely racing weight. GET ready for a bit of Jamie Spencer (below) magic on CARRYTHEONE. He looks like he belongs at this level, but conditions would be a concern. English Oaks looked smart when hacking up here in the Buckingham Palace.

The winner that day was in receipt of a stone but faces those old foes off levels here. Stattler, representing Willie Mullins, might take a few betting pounds but his trainer is 0 from 15, four places, over the Festival banks and barrels. Get Your Tips Out is known as one of the top free tipsters in the horse racing industry.

Found A Fifty has led in each of his four chase spins and will face pace contention here; that might compromise his chance. In any case, he looks a little way behind peak showings from the other pair mentioned so far. As I write there are four horses priced at 5/1 or shorter, headed – just – by Gaelic Warrior. Trained by Mullins for Ricci, he was presumed for the Turners after his romp in the Grade 1 Faugheen Novices’ Chase over two and a half miles at Christmas. But then came Leopardstown and the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) where, in the Grade 1 novice chase there, he just ran a shocker.

AL AASY is not getting any younger at the age of seven but looked at the peak of his powers when smashing the course record at Newbury last time. Al Qareem is a gritty front runner and showed plenty of guts to win this last year. He was no match for Al Aasy last time but this track and ground brings out the best in him. As with the handicap hurdles, it’s been hard work for the girls. Only 19 have shown up but, while they have failed to win, they have recorded an impressive five placed efforts (26.32% place rate vs 18.18% for the boys). But it is worth further squinting at the data, because it relates that those aged five or six notched 27 of the 39 wins (69%) from just 49% of the runners.

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He had his warm up for this when cantering home in a two-runner Limited Handicap at Newcastle, against a rival receiving 19lb, and I think he has every chance of outrunning his odds here. I just wish we had eight runners for that 3rd each way place. The lightly-raced mare Magic Daze has been fairly well supported but I’m struggling to see her case. She was second in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle last season before finishing only fourth in a Listed mares’ event at Punchestown. Over fences, she’s one from three so far and she lacks obvious upside to my eye. Perhaps more interesting of the longer-priced Irish runners is Coeur Sublime, who ran in open Grade 1 hurdles last year and was rated 152 in that sphere.

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Baron Bolt in 2018, winning for Paul Cole at odds of 28/1 under the guidance of Cameron Noble. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 4 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2025 Ayr Gold Cup remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.

It has been the obvious race for him since last year and we’ve just had to creep there. The owners have been very good and said if that is what you want to do then go for it. “Luke got it right and there was enough room for him to keep pushing and get where we wanted. It was one of those races where I can’t remember one going so well since Alborada got the pacemaker and High-Rise didn’t (in the 1999 Champion Stakes). “I was very concerned about the draw, I had a thoroughly bad day when I found out his position.

Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins each have nine, and the next best of Jonjo O’Neill, with four. Be wary of horses wearing headgear, especially blinkers or cheekpieces, in Open Grade 1’s at the Festival. The  link to this market (at the bottom, in the ‘lengthen the odds’ section) is here. His form this campaign is well clear of any other two mile chaser on either side of the Irish Sea.

Still, better will have been expected overall and better will be needed if Shishkin’s price is not to flirt with odds-against between now and mid-March. Last year’s Arkle winner has excellent Cheltenham form, being three from three at the track including that Festival score. Dan Skelton trains this mare and she’s looked very good either side of a two length third to Paisley Park and Thyme Hill in the Grade 2 Long Walk Hurdle in December. Shady Operator could be an apt winner for players of this slightly snide angle.

The third and fifth from the Betfair finished 1-2 in the Imperial Cup at the weekend so that form looks solid. In between times, Iberico Lord was well beaten at Ascot and perhaps it was a combination of the slower pace and faster turf that did for him. It should be at least a little bit softer here but whether there’s much pace in the race remains to be seen. Whilst he’s obviously progressive, he’s got about a stone and a half to find on official ratings if the favourite runs to within a pound or three of his mark. He’d previously been only 1 1/2 lengths behind Stay Away Fay on softer ground at Sandown where he travelled strongly through the race before being continously hampered by a loose horse around the 3rd last fence. He still cruised upside the eventual winner as the pair jumped the last and kept on nicely up the run in but wasn’t quite able to keep a straight line and keep tabs with Stay Away Fay in the last 100 yards.

If you don’t believe me, I’ve copied the in-running comments from his six races over fences below. He’s won them all, but that might be something to keep in mind if you’re tempted to pile in at cramped odds. Fell at 9/2 in 2018, when Min was only second as a 5/2 shot, and – worse – 7th in 2017 as a 2/9 chance.

On official ratings, Gaillard du Mesnil is clear of his field and he obviously has the talent to win; but his inability to put races to bed, even if they have been higher level races, has to be a worry at the price. Against him, there is a clutch of horses separated by only a few pounds on ratings, and it will be the one that adapts best to this somewhat unique test who is the each way bet. That might be the ultra-consistent Mister Coffey, who has placed Festival form to his name. I’ve backed loads of them, which is ridiculous, because I haven’t got a clue who wins.